@Article{TorresMare:2013:UnAsCl,
               author = "Torres, Roger Rodrigues and Marengo, Jos{\'e} Antonio",
          affiliation = "Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies (CPTEC), National 
                         Institute for Space Research (INPE), Rodovia Presidente Dutra km 
                         40, 12630-000 Cachoeira Paulista, S{\~a}o Paulo, Brazil; Natural 
                         Resources Institute (IRN), Federal University of Itajub{\'a} 
                         (UNIFEI), Av. BPS, 1303, 37500-903 Itajub{\'a}, Minas Gerais, 
                         Brazil and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Uncertainty assessments of climate change projections over South 
                         America",
              journal = "Theoretical and Applied Climatology",
                 year = "2013",
               volume = "112",
               number = "1-2",
                pages = "253--272",
             keywords = "assessment method, climate variation, general circulation model, 
                         precipitation (climatology), seasonal variation, temperature 
                         effect, twenty first century, uncertainty analysis, Amazon Basin, 
                         Brazil, La Plata Basin.",
             abstract = "This paper assesses the uncertainties involved in the projections 
                         of seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over South 
                         America in the twenty-first century. Climate simulations generated 
                         by 24 general circulation models are weighted according to the 
                         reliability ensemble averaging (REA) approach. The results show 
                         that the REA mean temperature change is slightly smaller over 
                         South America compared to the simple ensemble mean. Higher 
                         reliability in the temperature projections is found over the La 
                         Plata basin, and a larger uncertainty range is located in the 
                         Amazon. A temperature increase exceeding 2 °C is found to have a 
                         very likely (>90 %) probability of occurrence for the entire South 
                         American continent in all seasons, and a more likely than not (>50 
                         %) probability of exceeding 4 °C by the end of this century is 
                         found over northwest South America, the Amazon Basin, and 
                         Northeast Brazil. For precipitation, the projected changes have 
                         the same magnitude as the uncertainty range and are comparable to 
                         natural variability.",
                  doi = "10.1007/s00704-012-0718-7",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0718-7",
                 issn = "0177-798X",
                label = "scopus",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "10.1007_s00704-012-0718-7.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}